I will start by outlining the positive and historical signs of why I trust in my projections of a strong Trump re-election Electoral College win, but also I will include here another projection which is based mostly on the polling averages, the heavily mail in ballots (which in the swing states can be challenged in the courts in being fraudulent and might put the courts to decide whether they will count or not) and also their traditional voting through history.
There has been only 10 Presidents out of 45 that have lost re-election and last one was 28 years ago where George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton, but it has to be mentioned that this was due to having Texas billionaire H. Perot running as a third candidate and winning a whopping 19% of the popular vote (he was actually leading in the polls in mid-1992) and the majority of his voters were Republican voters(Bush had 74% in the GOP primaries. Trump has 92% +) who were angry at Bush’s tax increases which is unusual for a Republican President.So, the incumbency is a strong advantage for President Trump.
Another point here that has to be taken into consideration is the huge enthusiasm that the voters have for voting for Trump compared to Biden voters who are split (52% voting because of liking Biden and 48% voting just for the removal of Trump). The crowds that Trump has been having in his rallies are showing an increase compared to 2016, plus seeing massive parades from boats and cars, to trucks and tractors across USA especially seeing parades in heavily Democratic states is telling a different picture then the polls we see on the mainstream media.
The second debate was a clear win for Trump where at the last segment he actually got Biden to admit that he will “transition and eliminate” the oil and gas industry in USA and banning fracking, meaning millions of jobs lost and giving people the fears of experiencing the 70’s to wait at the gas pumps or having massive energy, petrol and gas price increases.Also, the crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas among others have huge parts of their economies based on the oil and gas industry and that would mean millions of people left without jobs.
This is another argument that I personally thing was more beneficial to him then negative, the reason being is because he is 74 years old, a man and a little overweight(all of these are characteristics of a person who is much likely to die from the virus) and yet in only 3 days he returned as a hero in the eyes of millions of people and gave them hope and will to fight on, because he chose to be a leader and set an example in working and going on instead of hiding in the basement like Biden.
This has been a battle since the start of his campaign in 2015 and it has only intensified to the point of having a 92% negative coverage(stories) about his Presidency. Many stories where the media used “anonymous sources” has backfired on them and they lost a lot of credibility and that can be seen by having nearly double the viewership of Fox News compared to the other mainstream media, meaning the media is less significant now in spreading their side of the story and dealing President Trump a real damage. The final weeks have been marked by a clear attempt to censor the “Hunter Biden laptop story” where people got to see tons of emails where there had been allegations of huge corruption within the Biden family for years and his business partner Tony Bobulinski stunning press conference just before the debate where he supplied text messages, emails and recounted meetings he had with Joe Biden and his family on business dealings involving China and other countries. Twitter, Facebook and the media tried to censor the story and it backfired on them badly and made the people doubt and question the whole story.
In the latest polls we are seeing Trump has from 24% in the latest CNN poll up to 34% support in other polls among Black minority(celebrities like Ice Cube, Lil Wayne, 50 Cent, Kanye West publicly supported Trump). If this percentage is nearly true on the day of the election Trump will surely win a very big victory.
The Latino votes are shifting more and more towards Trump and especially they are crucial in Florida and Arizona. The facts that Obama restarted relations with Cuba, left Maduro have a stronger grip on Venezuela, made a disastrous deal with Santos and FARC in Colombia and Trump giving Puerto Rico additional 13$ billion in aid few weeks ago combined with the rhetoric of the radical left in bringing socialism in USA are things that American Latino community are strongly against.
The two different sides that have been portrayed during these last months. On the one side you got the mainstream media, NGO’s, Black Lives Matter, Democrats, Anarchists, Antifa justifying all of this burning and destructions in the name of racial injustice and even trying to portray it as peaceful protests. The other side is the President Trump’s message “Law & Order” and almost every Police Union, many Firefighters Unions and blue collar workers Unions in USA endorsing Trump which they traditionally endorsed the Democrats and the image of strong leader that President Trump portrayed is giving me enormous confidence that it will play a huge role in this election. The clear sign that majority of business today are getting ready for more violence and rioting shows me that even the business community is confident that Trump victory is in sight.
Last but not least, “Trump’s unique and courageous foreign policy” – Wiping out ISIS, killing its leader, killing the Iran’s most ruthless General Soleimani, moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, making NATO allies to pay their fare share, standing up to China, many trade agreements, the summits with North Korea, Serbia-Kosovo agreement and historically important three new agreements between Israel and Arab countries contributing to a more peaceful Middle East and the most important of them all, no new wars started under his administration which I believe is very important achievement.
All these and the fact that I still believe strongly in the American people that they are not giving up on the American way of life and values gives me the confidence to say President Trump is on road to winning another stunning victory.
Автор: Предизборна колумна на Христијан Мицевски, човек кој живеел во Вашингтон, бил дел од изборни кампањи во САД (2010), имал дискусија и телефонски разговор со Барак Обама околу “DREAM Act”, а своите студии ги завршил на колеџ за “American Government & Politics” вклучително студии во Лондон на “Languages & Global Politics at University of London”.